Newcomer·Wednesday, March 18, 2026·3 min readAI

VC RETURNS REVEALED: Recent Thrive & Notable Funds in a League of Their Own at UTIMCO

Recent venture capital returns indicate a significant opportunity in AI-focused startups, particularly those involved with LLMs like OpenAI and Anthropic.

The newsletter highlights the recent performance of various venture capital funds, particularly those associated with AI technologies. Thrive Capital and Notable Capital have reported extraordinary returns, primarily driven by their investments in leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. This trend suggests a significant opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the AI boom, although caution is advised due to the reliance on valuation mark-ups rather than realized profits. The data indicates a potential shift in the market, with newer funds outperforming older vintages, making it a critical time for investors to reassess their strategies in the tech sector.

Key Takeaways

  • Thrive Capital's 2022 fund shows an IRR of over 126%, driven by investments in OpenAI and other tech startups.
  • Notable Capital's 2023 fund experienced a dramatic IRR increase from -48% to 96%, largely due to stakes in Anthropic.
  • Sequoia Capital's funds are showing positive IRR growth, suggesting potential recovery in older vintages.
  • Recent funds are reflecting valuation mark-ups rather than realized gains, indicating a potential market bubble.
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